Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 07:29, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 07:29 → HNL 08:31AS 1027	3h 12m Honolulu	HNL 11:43 → SJC 19:58AS 839	9h 29m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	3h 28m Kahului	OGG 13:23 → SJC 21:19AS 954	9h 00m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	2h 11m San Diego	SAN 21:13 → SJC 22:45AS 1308	9h 08m	94%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:52 → HNL 10:54AS 1047	49m Honolulu	HNL 11:43 → SJC 19:58AS 839	7h 06m	69%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON