Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:52, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2230 Southwest	KOA 10:00	SMF 18:00	11%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	4h 00m Kahului	OGG 13:55 → SMF 21:57AS 960	9h 38m	100%	71%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:50 → HNL 09:52AS 1037	2h 21m Honolulu	HNL 12:13 → SMF 20:17AS 820	8h 27m	100%	69%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	1h 38m San Diego	SAN 20:40 → SMF 22:19AS 428	8h 42m	93%	60%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	53m San Francisco	SFO 20:56 → SMF 21:59UA 1862	7h 04m	79%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON