Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 62 KTN 13:29 → SEA 16:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 64 KTN 17:23 → SEA 20:21 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 62 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 13:29	SEA 16:30	15%	6%	2.3%	88%
AS 60 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 09:20	SEA 12:21	16%	5%	1.6%	85%
AS 64 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 17:23	SEA 20:21	24%	8%	4.2%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON