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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 141 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1282 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–58%.

Safest bet that day WN 1282 ONT 05:50 → SJC 07:17 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2106 LAX 20:55 → SFO 22:21 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 1282 Southwest ONT 05:50 SJC 07:17 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1598 Southwest ONT 07:10 OAK 08:39 3% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4785 Southwest LAX 06:40 SJC 08:04 3% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 1393 Southwest LGB 07:50 SJC 09:15 4% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1123 Southwest BUR 07:20 OAK 08:44 4% 1% 1.4% no record
WN 3496 Southwest LGB 08:02 OAK 09:33 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1137 Southwest BUR 08:13 SJC 09:36 5% 2% 1.3% no record
WN 1102 Southwest SNA 08:02 OAK 09:36 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4009 Southwest SNA 08:48 SJC 10:18 5% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 781 United LAX 06:05 SFO 07:41 6% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 928 Southwest BUR 10:18 SJC 11:41 7% 2% 1.3% no record
WN 3280 Southwest ONT 10:47 SJC 12:14 7% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 966 Southwest SNA 09:38 SJC 11:08 7% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 3625 Southwest LAX 07:15 OAK 08:41 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1031 Southwest BUR 09:49 OAK 11:13 8% 2% 1.3% no record
UA 2363 United Flight history → ONT 06:00 SFO 07:25 8% 2% 0.7% 91%
WN 1887 Southwest LAX 08:00 SJC 09:23 9% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 3946 Southwest LGB 11:22 OAK 12:52 9% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 4002 Southwest ONT 12:50 OAK 14:18 10% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 883 Southwest BUR 10:49 OAK 12:13 10% 3% 1.2% no record
WN 3587 Southwest SNA 09:52 OAK 11:25 11% 4% 0.6% no record
OO 3847 SkyWest LAX 07:53 SJC 09:20 12% 6% 0.6% no record
WN 1045 Southwest LAX 08:51 OAK 10:17 13% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 3804 Southwest LGB 12:05 SJC 13:30 13% 3% 0.5% no record
DL 1380 Delta LAX 09:26 SJC 10:46 14% 4% 1.2% no record
OO 3849 SkyWest LAX 14:24 SJC 15:51 14% 7% 0.6% no record
WN 123 Southwest ONT 15:50 OAK 17:18 14% 6% 0.6% no record
WN 2503 Southwest LAX 06:34 SFO 08:02 15% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 1481 Southwest SNA 11:48 SJC 13:18 16% 5% 0.7% no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 12:57 SJC 14:12 16% 6% 0.6% 90%
WN 3881 Southwest LGB 14:10 OAK 15:41 17% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 1257 Southwest BUR 13:01 SJC 14:24 17% 5% 1.3% no record
WN 4012 Southwest SNA 14:34 SJC 16:04 18% 5% 0.7% no record
WN 1261 Southwest BUR 14:26 SJC 15:49 18% 6% 1.2% no record
WN 4945 Southwest BUR 07:05 SFO 08:32 19% 6% 1.9% no record
WN 2313 Southwest LAX 10:35 SJC 11:59 19% 4% 0.7% no record
WN 3997 Southwest SNA 12:27 OAK 14:00 19% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 4020 Southwest ONT 16:11 SJC 17:35 19% 7% 0.5% no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 18:17 SJC 19:32 19% 7% 0.6% 88%
WN 2667 Southwest ONT 21:10 OAK 22:38 20% 9% 0.6% no record
WN 3151 Southwest SNA 21:00 SJC 22:30 21% 6% 0.7% no record
WN 2577 Southwest LGB 16:40 SJC 18:05 21% 5% 0.5% no record
WN 4047 Southwest SNA 15:44 SJC 17:14 21% 7% 0.7% no record
WN 3282 Southwest ONT 20:35 SJC 22:02 22% 8% 0.5% no record
DL 1359 Delta LAX 16:06 SJC 17:26 23% 8% 1.2% no record
WN 925 Southwest BUR 13:45 OAK 15:09 23% 5% 1.2% no record
WN 561 Southwest LAX 10:51 OAK 12:17 24% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 1227 Southwest SNA 21:10 OAK 22:43 24% 7% 0.6% no record
WN 1010 Southwest BUR 16:46 SJC 18:09 24% 7% 1.3% no record
WN 4014 Southwest SNA 17:50 SJC 19:20 24% 8% 0.7% no record
DL 1421 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:00 SFO 08:21 24% 7% 0.9% 94%worse than usual
UA 488 United Flight history → BUR 07:02 SFO 08:30 24% 9% 1.1% 80%
WN 935 Southwest BUR 20:20 SJC 21:43 24% 10% 1.3% no record
WN 3831 Southwest SNA 19:55 SJC 21:25 25% 8% 0.7% no record
WN 1371 Southwest BUR 15:25 OAK 16:49 25% 6% 1.2% no record
WN 2578 Southwest LGB 19:00 SJC 20:25 25% 7% 0.5% no record
WN 3869 Southwest BUR 19:11 SJC 20:34 25% 10% 1.2% no record
WN 1150 Southwest LGB 19:50 OAK 21:20 26% 7% 0.6% no record
OO 5396 SkyWest ONT 18:39 SFO 20:40 26% 14% 1.1% no record
WN 2509 Southwest LAX 13:35 SJC 14:58 27% 7% 0.7% no record
UA 1320 United SNA 15:06 SFO 16:54 27% 15% 0.8% no record
WN 889 Southwest BUR 19:25 OAK 20:49 27% 8% 1.1% no record
UA 1387 United ONT 09:29 SFO 11:07 27% 10% 0.7% no record
WN 4113 Southwest Flight history → SNA 14:51 OAK 16:25 27% 7% 0.6% 90%worse than usual
WN 2897 Southwest SNA 17:09 OAK 18:43 27% 7% 0.6% no record
UA 1375 United Flight history → ONT 13:50 SFO 15:15 27% 15% 0.7% 57%
UA 1372 United Flight history → LAX 07:25 SFO 08:58 28% 8% 0.6% 49%
OO 5483 SkyWest ONT 16:05 SFO 17:39 28% 13% 0.8% no record
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 17:49 SFO 19:25 28% 13% 1.1% 62%
F9 1159 Frontier Flight history → ONT 12:01 SFO 13:37 29% 19% 2.1% 23%
DL 1420 Delta LAX 20:52 SJC 22:12 29% 9% 1.3% no record
UA 233 United Flight history → LAX 17:10 SFO 18:38 29% 15% 0.6% 83%worse than usual
OO 3493 SkyWest SNA 20:33 SFO 22:09 29% 12% 1.3% no record
UA 5351 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 16:12 SFO 17:50 29% 14% 1.0% 67%
UA 2111 United SNA 18:22 SFO 20:10 30% 18% 0.8% no record
AA 1110 American LAX 11:10 SFO 12:52 30% 15% 0.6% no record
WN 1145 Southwest BUR 20:52 OAK 22:16 30% 9% 1.3% no record
AS 3251 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 07:45 SFO 09:34 30% 11% 1.1% 93%worse than usual
WN 3164 Southwest SNA 19:24 OAK 20:57 30% 8% 0.6% no record
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 16:23 SFO 17:59 31% 13% 1.0% 72%
F9 3581 Frontier Flight history → SNA 17:54 SFO 19:34 31% 15% 1.1% 61%
UA 1245 United Flight history → LAX 11:52 SFO 13:28 31% 13% 0.6% 79%
WN 1129 Southwest BUR 18:00 OAK 19:24 31% 8% 1.1% no record
OO 6274 SkyWest LAX 07:22 SFO 08:52 32% 10% 0.9% no record
AS 736 Alaska SNA 19:31 SFO 21:15 32% 14% 0.8% no record
WN 3163 Southwest LAX 15:25 OAK 16:51 32% 7% 0.6% no record
OO 5330 SkyWest SNA 11:11 SFO 13:03 33% 13% 1.0% no record
UA 5339 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 19:27 SFO 21:05 34% 16% 1.2% 50%
OO 3055 SkyWest SNA 13:49 SFO 15:25 34% 14% 1.0% no record
OO 5272 SkyWest BUR 21:17 SFO 22:46 34% 13% 2.2% no record
UA 2019 United Flight history → LAX 16:14 SFO 17:42 34% 16% 0.6% 68%
UA 520 United BUR 09:35 SFO 11:22 34% 15% 1.1% no record
OO 6276 SkyWest LAX 13:59 SFO 15:29 35% 14% 0.8% no record
DL 689 Delta LAX 12:01 SFO 13:24 35% 11% 0.9% no record
UA 2386 United Flight history → BUR 10:53 SFO 12:21 35% 14% 1.0% 52%
AA 3138 American Flight history → LAX 17:39 SFO 19:18 35% 20% 0.6% 69%
UA 653 United SNA 07:47 SFO 09:21 35% 13% 0.8% no record
F9 4081 Frontier LAX 18:36 SJC 20:06 35% 15% 2.9% no record
AS 91 Alaska LAX 15:35 SFO 16:59 36% 13% 0.7% no record
UA 469 United Flight history → LAX 14:11 SFO 15:38 36% 16% 0.6% 77%worse than usual
UA 2199 United LAX 10:54 SFO 12:21 36% 14% 0.6% no record
UA 1066 United BUR 16:10 SFO 17:37 37% 18% 1.0% no record
OO 3039 SkyWest SNA 11:52 SFO 13:28 37% 13% 1.0% no record
AA 6260 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 22:09 SFO 23:38 37% 12% 0.9% 63%
WN 2495 Southwest LAX 16:50 OAK 18:16 37% 9% 0.5% no record
AS 309 Alaska LAX 12:57 SFO 14:21 38% 11% 0.7% no record
AS 361 Alaska LAX 17:25 SFO 18:49 38% 14% 0.6% no record
DL 2197 Delta Flight history → LAX 18:16 SFO 19:41 38% 15% 0.9% 45%
WN 2596 Southwest LAX 22:10 SJC 23:33 38% 12% 0.6% no record
WN 1501 Southwest BUR 13:45 SFO 15:12 38% 15% 1.4% no record
WN 4484 Southwest LAX 18:20 SJC 19:43 38% 13% 0.6% no record
WN 1504 Southwest BUR 20:55 SFO 22:22 39% 18% 1.6% no record
WN 2505 Southwest LAX 12:25 SFO 13:52 39% 16% 0.6% no record
UA 1905 United LAX 09:41 SFO 11:08 39% 14% 0.6% no record
WN 2510 Southwest LAX 20:25 SJC 21:48 39% 15% 0.6% no record
WN 1267 Southwest LAX 22:50 OAK 00:16 39% 9% 0.5% no record
UA 2056 United Flight history → LAX 21:34 SFO 23:02 40% 16% 0.6% 61%
F9 2857 Frontier Flight history → LAX 08:38 SFO 10:12 40% 16% 2.7% 50%
UA 1453 United Flight history → BUR 13:45 SFO 15:13 40% 16% 0.9% 66%
OO 5616 SkyWest SNA 09:44 SFO 11:20 41% 18% 1.0% no record
OO 3054 SkyWest SNA 09:13 SFO 10:49 41% 17% 1.0% no record
AA 6277 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 09:43 SFO 11:13 41% 14% 0.8% 63%
WN 2504 Southwest LAX 09:55 SFO 11:22 41% 15% 0.6% no record
UA 1508 United Flight history → BUR 18:42 SFO 20:10 41% 19% 1.0% 41%
UA 2854 United Flight history → BUR 20:22 SFO 21:50 42% 16% 1.1% 53%
UA 1047 United LAX 22:31 SFO 23:58 42% 17% 0.5% no record
DL 1715 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:20 SFO 10:42 43% 11% 0.9% 52%
WN 2518 Southwest LAX 18:20 OAK 19:46 43% 12% 0.5% no record
F9 4593 Frontier Flight history → LAX 19:07 SFO 20:45 44% 25% 2.2% 49%
UA 2837 United LAX 19:46 SFO 21:14 44% 22% 0.6% no record
DL 2267 Delta Flight history → LAX 14:25 SFO 15:44 45% 14% 0.8% 50%
AS 1456 Alaska LAX 09:12 SFO 10:36 45% 13% 0.7% no record
AS 1411 Alaska LAX 14:27 SFO 15:51 45% 14% 0.7% no record
WN 4997 Southwest LAX 14:00 SFO 15:27 46% 18% 0.6% no record
AA 3100 American Flight history → LAX 21:09 SFO 22:38 47% 19% 0.6% 40%
DL 2986 Delta Flight history → LAX 22:00 SFO 23:19 47% 12% 0.9% 60%
AS 1364 Alaska LAX 19:45 SFO 21:12 48% 17% 0.6% no record
UA 1195 United Flight history → LAX 20:10 SFO 21:38 48% 21% 0.6% 28%
DL 1693 Delta LAX 20:08 SFO 21:32 52% 19% 0.9% no record
WN 3541 Southwest LAX 18:55 SFO 20:21 57% 25% 0.5% no record
WN 2106 Southwest LAX 20:55 SFO 22:21 58% 24% 0.5% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON