tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 47 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3273 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 3273 LAX 05:05 → DAL 10:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1208 BUR 12:22 → DFW 17:34 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 3273 Southwest LAX 05:05 DAL 10:16 5% 1% 0.6% no record
AA 1412 American Flight history → ONT 05:34 DFW 10:41 8% 4% 1.3% 89%
WN 1599 Southwest BUR 08:20 DAL 13:28 8% 2% 0.8% no record
AA 635 American ONT 06:06 DFW 11:20 8% 4% 1.3% no record
AA 2893 American Flight history → ONT 07:00 DFW 12:09 9% 4% 1.2% 87%
WN 2858 Southwest LGB 08:45 DAL 13:48 9% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2466 Southwest LAX 00:50 DAL 06:03 10% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 2811 American Flight history → LAX 06:00 DFW 11:15 11% 5% 1.1% 87%
DL 521 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:35 DFW 12:48 12% 5% 1.0% 88%
AA 2746 American Flight history → LAX 07:00 DFW 12:18 13% 6% 1.3% 87%
AA 2599 American Flight history → BUR 07:01 DFW 12:19 14% 5% 2.0% 92%
AA 2596 American Flight history → SNA 08:46 DFW 13:56 16% 6% 1.3% 86%
AA 3170 American SNA 07:42 DFW 12:52 16% 6% 1.5% no record
WN 3291 Southwest ONT 12:00 DAL 17:04 17% 4% 0.8% no record
AA 2766 American Flight history → LAX 07:52 DFW 13:07 17% 7% 1.2% 84%
WN 2489 Southwest SNA 09:00 DAL 14:07 18% 4% 0.6% no record
AA 971 American Flight history → LAX 00:41 DFW 05:51 18% 7% 1.1% 85%
AA 1820 American Flight history → ONT 10:31 DFW 15:43 21% 6% 1.0% 76%
AA 941 American LAX 01:13 DFW 06:29 21% 8% 1.1% no record
WN 2478 Southwest LAX 09:30 DAL 14:38 23% 4% 0.6% no record
F9 1406 Frontier Flight history → ONT 19:44 DFW 00:46 23% 9% 1.4% 79%
DL 8838 Delta LAX 09:52 DFW 14:54 23% 7% 0.8% no record
AA 1686 American Flight history → SNA 09:34 DFW 14:47 24% 6% 1.2% 88%worse than usual
F9 2274 Frontier Flight history → LAX 01:11 DFW 06:24 24% 10% 1.4% 82%
DL 420 Delta Flight history → LAX 18:53 DFW 23:59 24% 9% 0.8% 82%
F9 4964 Frontier Flight history → LAX 08:47 DFW 14:03 25% 9% 1.4% 75%
DL 948 Delta Flight history → LAX 13:50 DFW 19:04 25% 8% 0.8% 86%worse than usual
AA 1047 American Flight history → LAX 09:05 DFW 14:20 25% 9% 1.0% 65%
AA 2956 American Flight history → ONT 12:43 DFW 17:59 25% 8% 1.0% 71%
AA 2635 American Flight history → ONT 14:28 DFW 19:46 27% 10% 1.0% 73%
AA 2114 American Flight history → SNA 10:28 DFW 15:38 27% 8% 1.2% 78%
F9 3326 Frontier Flight history → SNA 10:45 DFW 15:55 30% 12% 1.2% 56%
AA 1154 American LAX 10:51 DFW 16:06 30% 11% 1.0% no record
AA 3223 American Flight history → SNA 18:46 DFW 23:59 32% 10% 1.7% 83%worse than usual
AA 1760 American LAX 12:12 DFW 17:27 33% 13% 1.0% no record
F9 2564 Frontier Flight history → LAX 16:12 DFW 21:26 33% 13% 1.3% 72%
AA 1241 American LAX 16:32 DFW 21:48 34% 15% 1.0% no record
AA 1504 American Flight history → LAX 18:54 DFW 00:00 34% 11% 1.1% 80%worse than usual
AA 1657 American Flight history → LAX 15:19 DFW 20:38 35% 14% 1.0% 57%
AA 500 American LAX 14:03 DFW 19:24 35% 13% 1.0% no record
AA 2024 American Flight history → LAX 17:50 DFW 23:03 36% 14% 1.0% 54%
WN 849 Southwest LAX 14:05 DAL 19:13 38% 10% 0.6% no record
AA 2465 American Flight history → SNA 15:39 DFW 20:41 39% 11% 1.2% 79%worse than usual
AA 9781 American LAX 13:13 DFW 18:09 39% 13% 1.0% no record
WN 2325 Southwest LAX 17:55 DAL 23:02 40% 13% 0.6% no record
AA 2659 American Flight history → SNA 16:30 DFW 21:40 41% 12% 1.5% 80%worse than usual
AA 1208 American Flight history → BUR 12:22 DFW 17:34 43% 11% 1.5% 73%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON