Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 482 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 482 LAX 07:35 → MCO 15:35 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest F9 4146 LAX 23:00 → MCO 07:13 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 482 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	MCO 15:35	21%	5%	1.4%	84%
UA 1730 United Flight history →	LAX 23:04	MCO 07:03	22%	5%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
DL 718 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:05	MCO 00:07	25%	7%	0.9%	77%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	LAX 10:24	MCO 18:30	27%	8%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
DL 547 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:27	MCO 06:25	29%	6%	0.8%	79%
WN 937 Southwest	LAX 22:20	MCO 06:09	30%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 867 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:28	MCO 18:42	35%	8%	1.0%	69%
AA 1024 American Flight history →	LAX 10:51	MCO 18:56	40%	11%	0.8%	69%
F9 4146 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 23:00	MCO 07:13	42%	18%	1.4%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 08m Houston	IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51UA 2245	7h 00m	89%	77%
American Details →	LAX 00:41 → DFW 05:51AA 971	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:05 → MCO 10:49AA 2119	7h 08m	86%	69%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	47m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → MCO 16:13DL 2032	7h 13m	87%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON