Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2533 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 2533 LAX 05:20 → BWI 13:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4276 LAX 13:25 → BWI 21:27 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2533 Southwest	LAX 05:20	BWI 13:20	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2268 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	IAD 16:26	15%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:30	DCA 15:32	16%	5%	0.9%	81%
UA 418 United Flight history →	LAX 23:36	IAD 07:39	18%	4%	0.7%	93%worse than usual
UA 2667 United Flight history →	LAX 10:39	IAD 18:48	18%	5%	0.7%	90%
UA 2282 United Flight history →	LAX 21:34	IAD 05:48	18%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 1605 United Flight history →	LAX 23:08	BWI 07:17	18%	5%	0.7%	91%
UA 1093 United Flight history →	LAX 09:33	BWI 17:43	19%	6%	0.6%	90%
UA 688 United	SNA 08:22	IAD 16:22	19%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 1506 United	LAX 16:43	IAD 00:58	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1164 United Flight history →	LAX 13:22	IAD 21:21	21%	7%	0.7%	94%worse than usual
UA 2372 United Flight history →	LAX 22:35	IAD 06:46	22%	4%	0.7%	100%worse than usual
AA 3283 American Flight history →	LAX 08:23	DCA 16:29	23%	8%	0.8%	83%
AA 591 American Flight history →	LAX 12:26	DCA 20:29	34%	11%	0.9%	78%worse than usual
WN 2477 Southwest	LAX 21:50	BWI 05:49	34%	7%	0.9%	no record
AS 6 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:48	DCA 20:00	35%	8%	0.9%	78%worse than usual
WN 4276 Southwest	LAX 13:25	BWI 21:27	35%	10%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 26m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	97%	83%
American Details →	LAX 00:41 → DFW 05:51AA 971	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:02 → DCA 10:59AA 1623	7h 18m	85%	73%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:29AA 1194	1h 01m Phoenix	PHX 08:30 → DCA 15:59AA 3191	6h 48m	88%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON