Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2398 at 12:25, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2398 Southwest	LAS 12:25	AMA 16:34	27%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Amarillo is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608	1h 14m Houston	IAH 12:25 → AMA 14:21UA 4817 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 21m	97%	80%
American Details →	LAS 05:57 → DFW 10:44AA 2932	3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:35 → AMA 15:59AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	8h 02m	99%	79%
American Details →	LAS 09:43 → DFW 14:28AA 2797	2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:17 → AMA 18:40AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	6h 57m	100%	75%
American Details →	LAS 06:53 → DFW 11:38AA 654	1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:22 → AMA 14:46AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	5h 53m	94%	75%
American Details →	LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:40 → AMA 00:07 +1AA 3990 · flown by Envoy	8h 05m	93%	71%
United Details →	LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315	1h 29m Denver	DEN 14:10 → AMA 16:41UA 5233 · flown by SkyWest	5h 04m	90%	63%
United Details →	LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323	2h 40m Denver	DEN 19:20 → AMA 21:50UA 5494 · flown by SkyWest	6h 14m	93%	54%
American Details →	LAS 12:33 → DFW 17:30AA 1482	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:17 → AMA 21:46AA 2426	7h 13m	96%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:17 → AMA 21:46AA 2426	5h 44m	69%	37%
American Details →	LAS 16:43 → DFW 21:28AA 1380	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:16 → AMA 23:32AA 2265	4h 49m	7%	3%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON