Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Portland, leaving 11:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1517 Alaska	LAS 17:10	ANC 21:24	38%	12%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAS 08:21 → PDX 10:44AS 596	3h 48m Portland	PDX 14:32 → ANC 17:21AS 1406	10h 00m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:31 → MSP 18:42DL 2238	3h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411	12h 28m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:29 → MSP 14:35DL 2261	3h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	12h 31m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45DL 2844	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922	8h 07m	94%	70%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:09 → SEA 14:00DL 2922	3h 30m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → ANC 20:14DL 2367	10h 05m	99%	69%
Alaska Details →	LAS 18:20 → HNL 21:39AS 805	1h 32m Honolulu	HNL 23:11 → ANC 07:33 +1AS 49	14h 13m	88%	68%
Delta Details →	LAS 14:40 → SEA 17:21DL 2880	3h 59m Seattle	SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936	10h 18m	96%	68%
American Details →	LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:08 → ANC 19:09AA 399	12h 56m	96%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAS 17:07 → SEA 19:40AS 749	1h 21m Seattle	SEA 21:01 → ANC 23:33AS 711	7h 26m	74%	50%
Alaska Details →	LAS 19:09 → SEA 21:41AS 552	1h 11m Seattle	SEA 22:52 → ANC 01:25 +1AS 703	7h 16m	65%	41%
Alaska Details →	LAS 18:27 → PDX 20:46AS 779	53m Portland	PDX 21:39 → ANC 00:35 +1AS 2192 · flown by Horizon	7h 08m	51%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON