Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 755 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 755 LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2428 LAS 23:50 → ATL 06:59 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 755 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:00	ATL 13:00	9%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 677 Delta Flight history →	LAS 07:05	ATL 14:05	14%	3%	0.7%	93%
WN 2237 Southwest	LAS 00:05	ATL 07:01	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1580 Southwest	LAS 07:45	ATL 14:51	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 927 Delta Flight history →	LAS 08:26	ATL 15:25	19%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 777 Delta Flight history →	LAS 10:41	ATL 17:45	22%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 787 Delta	LAS 23:02	ATL 06:05	23%	4%	0.8%	no record
F9 1116 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:40	ATL 13:50	23%	6%	0.9%	81%
DL 417 Delta Flight history →	LAS 22:35	ATL 05:38	27%	5%	0.8%	98%worse than usual
DL 748 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:41	ATL 18:47	28%	5%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
DL 466 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:12	ATL 20:24	34%	7%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
DL 591 Delta Flight history →	LAS 14:38	ATL 21:49	36%	9%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
F9 2428 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 23:50	ATL 06:59	40%	16%	1.1%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON