tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, G4 1567 at 11:01, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
G4 1567 Allegiant LAS 11:01 ATW 16:36 24% 8% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:45 → MSP 05:51DL 2834 3h 41m Minneapolis MSP 09:32 → ATW 10:47DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor 8h 02m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:46 → ORD 18:29UA 314 3h 31m Chicago ORD 22:00 → ATW 23:23UA 4495 · flown by GoJet 8h 37m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:27 → DTW 18:26DL 334 2h 43m Detroit DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest 8h 10m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 21:16 → ATW 22:31DL 2945 9h 50m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:33 → DFW 17:30AA 1482 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy 8h 08m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → LAS 07:00 → ORD 12:48UA 664 1h 07m Chicago ORD 13:55 → ATW 15:09UA 4479 · flown by GoJet 6h 09m 87% 68%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:31 → MSP 18:42DL 2238 3h 03m Minneapolis MSP 21:45 → ATW 22:58DL 4920 · flown by Endeavor 7h 27m 97% 60%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:43 → DEN 14:39UA 1006 3h 05m Denver DEN 17:44 → ATW 21:04UA 2089 7h 21m 94% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466 52m Atlanta ATL 21:16 → ATW 22:31DL 2945 7h 19m 55% 42%
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy 6h 39m 56% 40%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 1h 04m Denver DEN 17:44 → ATW 21:04UA 2089 5h 28m 58% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON