Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 488 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 488 LAS 06:45 → AUS 11:32 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 300 LAS 13:40 → AUS 18:26 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 488 Southwest	LAS 06:45	AUS 11:32	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 130 Southwest	LAS 07:50	AUS 12:37	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 4684 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:00	AUS 11:52	21%	6%	1.0%	77%
WN 1678 Southwest	LAS 12:06	AUS 16:53	32%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 4632 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 22:29	AUS 03:23	32%	14%	1.5%	81%worse than usual
WN 3120 Southwest	LAS 21:15	AUS 02:01	34%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 4532 Southwest	LAS 17:05	AUS 21:51	37%	15%	0.6%	no record
DL 2444 Delta	LAS 17:28	AUS 22:12	38%	14%	0.7%	no record
WN 4357 Southwest	LAS 20:00	AUS 00:46	39%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 300 Southwest	LAS 13:40	AUS 18:26	40%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON