Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 451 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 451 LAS 07:11 → BNA 12:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 646 LAS 13:55 → BNA 19:33 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 451 Southwest	LAS 07:11	BNA 12:46	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 333 Southwest	LAS 09:06	BNA 14:45	21%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 3778 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 07:10	BNA 12:58	23%	8%	0.7%	76%
WN 4088 Southwest	LAS 23:45	BNA 05:22	27%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 2238 Southwest	LAS 12:41	BNA 18:19	33%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 2266 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:18	BNA 00:55	36%	11%	0.6%	72%
WN 2248 Southwest	LAS 15:02	BNA 20:40	39%	14%	0.6%	no record
WN 646 Southwest	LAS 13:55	BNA 19:33	43%	9%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON