Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 5043 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 5043 LAS 06:50 → BOI 09:42 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2117 LAS 15:58 → BOI 18:39 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 5043 Southwest	LAS 06:50	BOI 09:42	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4209 Southwest	LAS 08:00	BOI 10:52	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 1933 Frontier	LAS 11:00	BOI 13:58	26%	14%	1.4%	no record
WN 2506 Southwest	LAS 22:35	BOI 01:26	36%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 2117 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 15:58	BOI 18:39	42%	13%	0.6%	69%worse than usual
AS 2182 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 17:52	BOI 20:43	29%	12%	3.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON