Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 28–34% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 1578 LAS 10:37 → BOS 18:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest B6 1178 LAS 12:12 → BOS 20:34 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1578 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 10:37	BOS 18:50	28%	10%	0.7%	62%
B6 778 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 20:50	BOS 05:00	31%	15%	0.8%	73%
DL 1020 Delta	LAS 11:47	BOS 19:44	34%	8%	0.7%	no record
B6 1178 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 12:12	BOS 20:34	34%	11%	0.7%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:45 → MSP 05:51DL 2834	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 00m	91%	83%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	1h 08m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	7h 14m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864	1h 17m Detroit	DTW 14:01 → BOS 16:09DL 1171	7h 19m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON