Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 189 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 189 LAS 07:05 → BUR 08:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4533 LAS 18:26 → BUR 19:43 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 189 Southwest	LAS 07:05	BUR 08:22	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 2965 Southwest	LAS 08:28	BUR 09:45	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 1289 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:33	BUR 10:50	11%	3%	0.9%	91%
WN 4037 Southwest	LAS 10:23	BUR 11:40	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
F9 4107 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:14	BUR 12:37	26%	10%	1.5%	89%worse than usual
WN 1081 Southwest	LAS 12:06	BUR 13:21	29%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 2261 Southwest	LAS 20:49	BUR 22:07	39%	18%	1.1%	no record
WN 3101 Southwest	LAS 15:41	BUR 16:58	39%	14%	1.0%	no record
WN 193 Southwest	LAS 14:51	BUR 16:08	42%	13%	1.0%	no record
WN 1050 Southwest	LAS 14:01	BUR 15:18	43%	13%	1.0%	no record
WN 2256 Southwest	LAS 16:36	BUR 17:53	44%	17%	1.1%	no record
WN 3112 Southwest	LAS 19:51	BUR 21:08	44%	21%	1.1%	no record
WN 4533 Southwest	LAS 18:26	BUR 19:43	46%	20%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON