Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2957 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 2957 LAS 07:00 → CLT 14:35 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2470 LAS 14:30 → CLT 22:04 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2957 American Flight history →	LAS 07:00	CLT 14:35	13%	5%	1.0%	92%
AA 2751 American Flight history →	LAS 23:45	CLT 07:04	20%	4%	1.0%	91%worse than usual
AA 8 American	LAS 07:59	CLT 15:12	21%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 1545 American	LAS 09:40	CLT 16:52	25%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2981 American Flight history →	LAS 11:43	CLT 18:55	36%	7%	1.1%	93%worse than usual
AA 2470 American Flight history →	LAS 14:30	CLT 22:04	43%	11%	1.0%	84%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	55m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	6h 12m	81%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON