tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2794 Delta Flight history → LAS 22:55 CVG 05:42 21% 4% 0.7% 92%worse than usual
G4 383 Allegiant LAS 09:33 CVG 16:30 29% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:52 → IAH 06:00UA 2009 1h 30m Houston IAH 07:30 → CVG 10:59UA 6312 · flown by Mesa 7h 07m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:45 → MSP 05:51DL 2834 1h 23m Minneapolis MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954 6h 18m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 1h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273 6h 03m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 12:47 → CVG 15:39DL 1776 6h 20m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:27UA 1978 5h 57m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864 1h 16m Detroit DTW 14:00 → CVG 15:16DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor 6h 26m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:29 → MSP 14:35DL 2261 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37DL 703 6h 08m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:57 → MSP 17:04DL 2262 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469 8h 14m 96% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 1h 00m Denver DEN 17:40 → CVG 22:28UA 1615 5h 52m 56% 33%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 18:27 → PDX 20:46AS 779 46m Portland PDX 21:32 → CVG 04:33 +1AS 2619 7h 06m 36% 30%
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 1h 06m Chicago ORD 21:29 → CVG 23:46UA 1223 6h 21m 52% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON