tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2307 Southwest LAS 09:25 DCA 16:56 30% 5% 0.7% no record
AA 1525 American LAS 11:50 DCA 19:56 37% 10% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:52 → IAH 06:00UA 2009 1h 44m Houston IAH 07:44 → DCA 11:40UA 512 7h 48m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:45 → MSP 05:51DL 2834 1h 45m Minneapolis MSP 07:36 → DCA 11:00DL 2958 7h 15m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:46UA 2102 2h 31m Chicago ORD 08:17 → DCA 11:20UA 1705 8h 16m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:01 → ORD 05:39AA 3077 3h 14m Chicago ORD 08:53 → DCA 11:59AA 523 8h 58m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:07 → EWR 07:51UA 406 2h 43m Newark EWR 10:34 → DCA 11:52UA 4172 · flown by GoJet 8h 45m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 59m Denver DEN 09:31 → DCA 15:00UA 789 6h 30m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 35m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 3h 15m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 8h 50m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:46 → ORD 18:29UA 314 1h 16m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 7h 08m 64% 31%
UnitedDetails → LAS 10:25 → ORD 16:21UA 1583 58m Chicago ORD 17:19 → DCA 20:26UA 2761 7h 01m 60% 31%
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 6h 57m 47% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON