Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2277 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–58%.

Safest bet that day WN 2277 LAS 05:10 → DEN 08:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3540 LAS 14:53 → DEN 18:00 · 59% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2277 Southwest	LAS 05:10	DEN 08:05	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2278 Southwest	LAS 06:00	DEN 08:55	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 596 United Flight history →	LAS 05:30	DEN 08:32	7%	2%	0.6%	98%
WN 1900 Southwest	LAS 07:10	DEN 10:04	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2280 Southwest	LAS 09:47	DEN 12:41	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1315 United Flight history →	LAS 09:37	DEN 12:41	17%	6%	0.6%	93%
F9 4968 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 08:15	DEN 11:19	20%	7%	0.9%	86%
F9 1766 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:26	DEN 12:28	22%	8%	0.9%	79%
UA 1006 United Flight history →	LAS 11:43	DEN 14:39	30%	9%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
WN 2285 Southwest	LAS 21:15	DEN 00:09	33%	11%	0.9%	no record
F9 2350 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:38	DEN 14:40	33%	10%	1.1%	88%worse than usual
F9 4612 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 20:35	DEN 23:36	34%	15%	1.3%	73%
UA 2126 United	LAS 19:46	DEN 22:41	35%	15%	0.7%	no record
WN 1916 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:10	DEN 01:04	38%	12%	0.8%	98%worse than usual
WN 975 Southwest	LAS 12:42	DEN 15:36	40%	10%	0.8%	no record
UA 1291 United Flight history →	LAS 18:10	DEN 21:11	41%	19%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
UA 1323 United Flight history →	LAS 13:36	DEN 16:40	45%	15%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
UA 2108 United Flight history →	LAS 16:25	DEN 19:30	49%	20%	0.7%	73%worse than usual
WN 745 Southwest	LAS 14:05	DEN 16:59	50%	15%	0.8%	no record
WN 2283 Southwest	LAS 14:55	DEN 17:49	54%	17%	0.9%	no record
UA 484 United	LAS 15:13	DEN 18:22	55%	20%	0.7%	no record
WN 2120 Southwest	LAS 16:00	DEN 18:53	58%	19%	0.8%	no record
F9 3540 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:53	DEN 18:00	59%	23%	1.1%	66%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON