Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2932 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–51%.

Safest bet that day AA 2932 LAS 05:57 → DFW 10:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1380 LAS 16:43 → DFW 21:28 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2932 American Flight history →	LAS 05:57	DFW 10:44	9%	4%	1.1%	94%
AA 654 American Flight history →	LAS 06:53	DFW 11:38	12%	6%	1.2%	86%
AA 617 American Flight history →	LAS 07:13	DFW 12:06	14%	7%	1.1%	89%
AA 1908 American Flight history →	LAS 08:53	DFW 13:39	19%	7%	1.0%	87%
F9 3886 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 08:41	DFW 13:31	23%	8%	1.1%	92%worse than usual
AA 2797 American Flight history →	LAS 09:43	DFW 14:28	24%	7%	1.0%	94%worse than usual
AA 1584 American Flight history →	LAS 10:11	DFW 15:08	25%	7%	1.0%	87%worse than usual
F9 1650 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:59	DFW 05:43	30%	11%	1.3%	77%
AA 1494 American Flight history →	LAS 11:41	DFW 16:38	35%	9%	1.0%	78%worse than usual
F9 3978 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 19:59	DFW 00:51	37%	16%	1.8%	82%worse than usual
F9 1052 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:22	DFW 19:26	41%	16%	1.3%	75%worse than usual
AA 1482 American Flight history →	LAS 12:33	DFW 17:30	41%	11%	1.0%	78%worse than usual
AA 777 American Flight history →	LAS 14:02	DFW 19:03	48%	15%	1.1%	73%worse than usual
AA 3286 American Flight history →	LAS 18:23	DFW 23:07	50%	18%	1.6%	65%worse than usual
AA 2376 American Flight history →	LAS 15:23	DFW 20:24	50%	17%	1.1%	66%worse than usual
AA 1380 American Flight history →	LAS 16:43	DFW 21:28	51%	18%	1.2%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON