tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: G4 48 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 43%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G4 48 Allegiant LAS 07:40 DSM 12:39 14% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 1838 Southwest LAS 13:50 DSM 18:45 43% 9% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 09m Denver DEN 09:41 → DSM 12:30UA 596 5h 00m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:45 → MSP 05:51DL 2834 3h 09m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → DSM 10:14DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 7h 29m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:46UA 2102 3h 13m Chicago ORD 08:59 → DSM 10:18UA 466 8h 14m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 8h 47m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 1h 28m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → DSM 14:05DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor 5h 46m 94% 71%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:57 → MSP 17:04DL 2262 2h 50m Minneapolis MSP 19:54 → DSM 21:08DL 5253 · flown by Endeavor 7h 11m 96% 69%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306 8h 48m 94% 68%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:29 → MSP 14:35DL 2261 1h 05m Minneapolis MSP 15:40 → DSM 16:54DL 4913 · flown by Endeavor 5h 25m 84% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466 51m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306 7h 17m 53% 39%
AmericanDetails → LAS 16:42 → PHX 18:02AA 1541 59m Phoenix PHX 19:01 → DSM 23:59AA 4950 · flown by SkyWest 5h 17m 52% 36%
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 1h 02m Chicago ORD 21:25 → DSM 22:56UA 1839 6h 31m 45% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON