Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 864 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 864 LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 523 LAS 13:25 → DTW 20:19 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 864 Delta Flight history →	LAS 05:50	DTW 12:44	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 470 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:59	DTW 16:58	20%	4%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
DL 502 Delta Flight history →	LAS 23:10	DTW 06:03	22%	5%	0.7%	61%
DL 334 Delta Flight history →	LAS 11:27	DTW 18:26	28%	4%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
DL 778 Delta Flight history →	LAS 15:11	DTW 22:17	32%	8%	0.6%	77%
F9 2802 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 21:44	DTW 05:01	33%	13%	0.8%	70%
WN 523 Southwest	LAS 13:25	DTW 20:19	46%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON