Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1925 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 1925 LAS 09:30 → ELP 12:22 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2749 LAS 16:35 → ELP 19:26 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1925 Southwest	LAS 09:30	ELP 12:22	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 3450 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:22	ELP 19:19	35%	18%	0.9%	70%
WN 2492 Southwest	LAS 22:39	ELP 01:29	41%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 2749 Southwest	LAS 16:35	ELP 19:26	42%	15%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON