tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: G4 133 at 10:54 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G4 133 Allegiant LAS 10:54 EUG 13:07 18% 7% 0.7% no record
WN 2291 Southwest LAS 14:10 EUG 16:20 36% 10% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → LAS 17:07 → SEA 19:40AS 749 3h 09m Seattle SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon 6h 52m 100% 89%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 08:21 → PDX 10:44AS 596 3h 46m Portland PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:23AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698 2h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 14:56 → EUG 16:01DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 6h 01m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45DL 2844 2h 45m Seattle SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest 6h 48m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 43m Denver DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318 7h 27m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:34 → SFO 15:16UA 1799 3h 59m San Francisco SFO 19:15 → EUG 21:02UA 363 7h 28m 98% 74%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 09:42 → SEA 12:16AS 676 3h 34m Seattle SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon 7h 18m 97% 65%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 2h 55m Denver DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21UA 1303 7h 45m 93% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAS 19:09 → SEA 21:41AS 552 1h 08m Seattle SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon 4h 50m 63% 56%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 18:27 → PDX 20:46AS 779 54m Portland PDX 21:40 → EUG 22:28AS 2088 · flown by Horizon 4h 01m 55% 44%
DeltaDetails → LAS 19:06 → SEA 21:49DL 2956 46m Seattle SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest 4h 45m 29% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON