Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1975 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 1975 LAS 07:00 → EWR 15:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1731 LAS 12:35 → EWR 20:40 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1975 United Flight history →	LAS 07:00	EWR 15:00	14%	4%	1.0%	96%
UA 406 United Flight history →	LAS 00:07	EWR 07:38	19%	4%	0.8%	85%
UA 1681 United Flight history →	LAS 23:04	EWR 07:00	23%	6%	1.2%	86%
UA 1784 United Flight history →	LAS 09:56	EWR 18:00	26%	9%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
UA 1386 United Flight history →	LAS 16:10	EWR 00:19	31%	13%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
UA 1933 United Flight history →	LAS 13:58	EWR 22:09	38%	13%	0.8%	78%worse than usual
UA 611 United	LAS 14:47	EWR 22:31	40%	16%	0.8%	no record
UA 1731 United Flight history →	LAS 12:35	EWR 20:40	40%	13%	0.9%	74%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:45 → MSP 05:51DL 2834	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864	7h 04m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864	1h 26m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	7h 04m	97%	70%
American Details →	LAS 00:01 → ORD 05:39AA 3077	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 06:46 → EWR 09:59AA 699	6h 58m	82%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON