Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: G4 4 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day G4 4 LAS 07:36 → FAT 09:00 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1288 LAS 15:35 → FAT 16:58 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G4 4 Allegiant	LAS 07:36	FAT 09:00	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 400 Southwest	LAS 12:15	FAT 13:37	26%	7%	0.6%	no record
G4 54 Allegiant	LAS 20:10	FAT 21:34	28%	13%	0.7%	no record
G4 51 Allegiant	LAS 15:02	FAT 16:26	29%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 1841 Southwest	LAS 22:59	FAT 00:21	34%	15%	0.6%	no record
WN 1288 Southwest	LAS 15:35	FAT 16:58	37%	12%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON