Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: B6 658 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 27% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 41–42%.

Safest bet that day B6 658 LAS 07:00 → FLL 14:56 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 608 LAS 22:35 → FLL 06:29 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 658 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 07:00	FLL 14:56	27%	10%	1.4%	86%worse than usual
B6 708 JetBlue	LAS 11:37	FLL 19:40	41%	14%	1.9%	no record
B6 608 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 22:35	FLL 06:29	42%	23%	1.7%	71%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAS 05:57 → DFW 10:44AA 2932	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:39 → FLL 15:39AA 3220	6h 42m	89%	58%
Delta Details →	LAS 08:26 → ATL 15:25DL 927	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295	7h 14m	87%	57%
Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → FLL 17:23DL 2345	7h 18m	90%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON