Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3172 at 08:37 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 3172 LAS 08:37 → HNL 12:10 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 805 LAS 18:20 → HNL 21:39 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3172 Southwest	LAS 08:37	HNL 12:10	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2296 Southwest	LAS 10:12	HNL 13:45	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 817 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 01:55	HNL 05:16	24%	5%	1.0%	87%worse than usual
AS 807 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 10:05	HNL 13:29	32%	8%	0.9%	65%
AS 805 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 18:20	HNL 21:39	39%	15%	1.0%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643	1h 45m San Francisco	SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175	8h 43m	98%	85%
United Details →	LAS 06:08 → LAX 07:24UA 2039	1h 41m Los Angeles	LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158	8h 45m	97%	80%
United Details →	LAS 07:10 → SFO 08:52UA 2356	1h 53m San Francisco	SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380	9h 10m	97%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON