Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 197 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 197 LAS 05:00 → HOU 10:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2032 LAS 14:50 → HOU 19:53 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 197 Southwest	LAS 05:00	HOU 10:02	6%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 2315 Southwest	LAS 06:45	HOU 11:48	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2299 Southwest	LAS 09:02	HOU 14:09	21%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3524 Southwest	LAS 12:00	HOU 17:07	31%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3986 Southwest	LAS 20:20	HOU 01:23	35%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 2032 Southwest	LAS 14:50	HOU 19:53	41%	13%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON