Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2608 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 2608 LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 1966 LAS 11:38 → IAH 16:50 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2608 United Flight history →	LAS 06:00	IAH 11:11	6%	3%	0.7%	95%
UA 1994 United	LAS 07:40	IAH 12:45	12%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1711 United Flight history →	LAS 10:25	IAH 15:40	14%	6%	0.6%	91%
UA 2009 United Flight history →	LAS 00:52	IAH 06:00	19%	6%	1.0%	91%
F9 1490 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:30	IAH 14:43	26%	8%	0.8%	84%
UA 1627 United	LAS 12:23	IAH 17:41	26%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 2741 United Flight history →	LAS 15:40	IAH 20:55	31%	14%	0.6%	74%
UA 1864 United	LAS 16:39	IAH 21:43	33%	15%	0.7%	no record
F9 4132 Frontier	LAS 00:49	IAH 06:00	35%	9%	1.8%	no record
F9 1966 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:38	IAH 16:50	36%	11%	0.9%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON