tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: G4 68 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G4 68 Allegiant LAS 08:10 ICT 12:46 18% 6% 0.6% no record
WN 2306 Southwest LAS 14:36 ICT 19:06 42% 12% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 23m Denver DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 13:23 → ICT 15:15DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 6h 56m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:46UA 2102 3h 06m Chicago ORD 08:52 → ICT 11:12UA 4809 · flown by SkyWest 9h 08m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 16:31 → ICT 17:47DL 2128 8h 42m 95% 73%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:43 → DFW 14:28AA 2797 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:07 → ICT 18:30AA 3691 · flown by Envoy 6h 47m 100% 69%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → ICT 22:01DL 2959 8h 20m 93% 69%
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315 1h 18m Denver DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 90% 68%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:43 → DEN 14:39UA 1006 3h 00m Denver DEN 17:39 → ICT 20:11UA 1788 6h 28m 94% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 1h 22m Chicago ORD 21:45 → ICT 23:47UA 424 7h 22m 70% 33%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 59m Denver DEN 17:39 → ICT 20:11UA 1788 4h 35m 54% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON