Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 510 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 510 LAS 07:05 → JFK 15:17 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 348 LAS 14:21 → JFK 22:12 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 510 Delta Flight history →	LAS 07:05	JFK 15:17	11%	3%	0.9%	96%
B6 2348 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 06:00	JFK 13:59	13%	3%	1.0%	81%
DL 1159 Delta	LAS 23:43	JFK 07:21	18%	4%	1.4%	no record
AA 1356 American	LAS 23:15	JFK 07:11	24%	6%	1.2%	no record
DL 333 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:35	JFK 17:59	25%	5%	0.9%	85%worse than usual
AA 1890 American	LAS 08:43	JFK 16:28	28%	6%	0.8%	no record
B6 948 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 23:59	JFK 08:00	33%	10%	1.7%	72%
DL 795 Delta Flight history →	LAS 12:10	JFK 20:39	33%	7%	0.9%	78%worse than usual
B6 1448 JetBlue	LAS 11:15	JFK 19:05	36%	9%	1.1%	no record
DL 1102 Delta	LAS 15:40	JFK 23:19	37%	10%	1.0%	no record
B6 248 JetBlue	LAS 15:54	JFK 23:44	41%	15%	1.2%	no record
AA 3081 American	LAS 12:52	JFK 21:11	41%	11%	0.9%	no record
B6 348 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 14:21	JFK 22:12	44%	15%	1.2%	73%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:45 → MSP 05:51DL 2834	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	6h 54m	88%	82%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 17:59 → JFK 19:39DL 1316	6h 40m	81%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON