tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via LAX, leaving 06:08, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4310 Southwest LAS 09:25 KOA 12:48 15% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:55 → HNL 05:16AS 817 2h 45m Honolulu HNL 08:01 → KOA 09:03AS 1048 10h 08m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:08 → LAX 07:24UA 2039 1h 36m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → KOA 11:42UA 2373 8h 34m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 43m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 07m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:34 → SFO 15:16UA 1799 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 18:52 → KOA 21:41UA 1723 11h 07m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 07:05 → OGG 10:12AS 931 3h 51m Kahului OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140 10h 34m 97% 79%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 10:05 → HNL 13:29AS 807 2h 57m Honolulu HNL 16:26 → KOA 17:12AS 1148 10h 07m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:08 → LAX 14:24DL 1696 2h 20m Los Angeles LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311 9h 09m 93% 77%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 10h 21m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAS 14:05 → SEA 16:38AS 629 1h 12m Seattle SEA 17:50 → KOA 21:03AS 238 9h 58m 74% 55%
AmericanDetails → LAS 11:18 → LAX 12:34AA 6425 · flown by SkyWest 56m Los Angeles LAX 13:30 → KOA 16:10AA 59 7h 52m 55% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON