Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 27 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1016 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–56%.

Safest bet that day WN 1016 LAS 05:55 → LAX 07:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3295 LAS 20:19 → LAX 21:34 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1016 Southwest	LAS 05:55	LAX 07:10	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2039 United Flight history →	LAS 06:08	LAX 07:23	9%	3%	0.7%	97%
F9 3291 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:19	LAX 07:40	14%	5%	0.7%	82%
UA 2316 United Flight history →	LAS 10:47	LAX 12:19	17%	9%	0.7%	90%
DL 553 Delta Flight history →	LAS 06:52	LAX 08:00	20%	4%	0.7%	94%worse than usual
AA 6425 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 10:04	LAX 11:24	22%	7%	0.7%	93%worse than usual
DL 2253 Delta Flight history →	LAS 09:48	LAX 11:01	26%	6%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
WN 2504 Southwest	LAS 08:01	LAX 09:16	27%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2808 United	LAS 08:08	LAX 09:24	27%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2690 American Flight history →	LAS 07:08	LAX 08:24	28%	7%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
UA 5612 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 18:58	LAX 20:29	33%	14%	0.9%	89%worse than usual
DL 1696 Delta Flight history →	LAS 13:08	LAX 14:24	35%	8%	0.7%	75%worse than usual
OO 6511 SkyWest	LAS 17:33	LAX 18:51	36%	16%	0.8%	no record
F9 2263 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 13:43	LAX 15:05	38%	12%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
UA 2184 United Flight history →	LAS 14:15	LAX 15:35	38%	12%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
DL 797 Delta	LAS 20:47	LAX 22:00	39%	13%	0.8%	no record
F9 1183 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 17:12	LAX 18:33	39%	18%	0.7%	79%worse than usual
WN 2508 Southwest	LAS 11:46	LAX 13:01	39%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1703 Delta	LAS 17:34	LAX 18:46	42%	13%	0.7%	no record
UA 1803 United	LAS 16:16	LAX 17:32	42%	17%	0.7%	no record
AA 1180 American	LAS 14:37	LAX 15:58	47%	16%	0.7%	no record
WN 481 Southwest	LAS 21:34	LAX 22:50	48%	15%	0.7%	no record
WN 2173 Southwest	LAS 22:46	LAX 00:02	50%	15%	0.7%	no record
AA 2477 American	LAS 18:49	LAX 20:06	51%	19%	0.7%	no record
WN 1938 Southwest	LAS 16:03	LAX 17:19	54%	15%	0.6%	no record
WN 2167 Southwest	LAS 14:54	LAX 16:09	55%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 3295 Southwest	LAS 20:19	LAX 21:34	56%	17%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON