Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4374 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 4374 LAS 08:05 → LGB 09:19 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2689 LAS 18:10 → LGB 19:25 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4374 Southwest	LAS 08:05	LGB 09:19	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1966 Southwest	LAS 11:10	LGB 12:25	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3127 Southwest	LAS 13:04	LGB 14:19	39%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 3394 Southwest	LAS 20:05	LGB 21:20	41%	16%	0.6%	no record
WN 2841 Southwest	LAS 16:46	LGB 18:01	42%	16%	0.6%	no record
WN 2689 Southwest	LAS 18:10	LGB 19:25	43%	16%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON