Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via LAX, leaving 06:08, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Lihue on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4463 Southwest	LAS 09:16	LIH 12:51	17%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAS 01:55 → HNL 05:16AS 817	3h 57m Honolulu	HNL 09:13 → LIH 10:07AS 1043	11h 12m	100%	88%
United Details →	LAS 06:08 → LAX 07:24UA 2039	1h 21m Los Angeles	LAX 08:45 → LIH 11:44UA 1295	8h 36m	97%	84%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643	1h 00m San Francisco	SFO 08:35 → LIH 11:30UA 1111	8h 30m	92%	82%
United Details →	LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574	3h 43m San Francisco	SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684	11h 12m	99%	80%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	3h 28m Denver	DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307	13h 07m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:47 → LAX 11:00DL 2253	3h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	10h 54m	97%	77%
Alaska Details →	LAS 10:05 → HNL 13:29AS 807	3h 46m Honolulu	HNL 17:15 → LIH 18:09AS 1143	11h 04m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	LAS 07:05 → OGG 10:12AS 931	2h 04m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	9h 01m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON