tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 202 at 13:24, with a 40% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 202 Southwest LAS 13:24 LIT 18:22 40% 9% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:52 → IAH 06:00UA 2009 3h 40m Houston IAH 09:40 → LIT 11:13UA 4371 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 21m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 10:25 → IAH 15:40UA 1711 2h 40m Houston IAH 18:20 → LIT 20:01UA 6150 · flown by Mesa 7h 36m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027 7h 12m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:43 → DFW 14:28AA 2797 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:52 → LIT 17:19AA 4309 · flown by Envoy 5h 36m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAS 07:00 → CLT 14:35AA 2957 2h 27m Charlotte CLT 17:02 → LIT 18:13AA 5672 · flown by PSA 9h 13m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 03m Denver DEN 09:35 → LIT 12:54UA 5369 · flown by SkyWest 5h 24m 94% 75%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:46UA 2102 2h 54m Chicago ORD 08:40 → LIT 10:38UA 4512 · flown by GoJet 8h 34m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 23:05 → LIT 23:41DL 2083 8h 29m 94% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 11:43 → CLT 18:55AA 2981 1h 30m Charlotte CLT 20:25 → LIT 21:38AA 3692 · flown by Envoy 7h 55m 73% 52%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 1h 03m Denver DEN 17:43 → LIT 20:52UA 1470 5h 16m 57% 30%
AmericanDetails → LAS 15:23 → DFW 20:24AA 2376 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:11 → LIT 22:35AA 4079 · flown by Envoy 5h 12m 30% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON