tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4331 at 14:00, with a 40% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4331 Southwest LAS 14:00 MAF 18:12 40% 10% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:52 → IAH 06:00UA 2009 1h 20m Houston IAH 07:20 → MAF 08:52UA 6263 · flown by Mesa 6h 00m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 33m Denver DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:36 → MAF 16:53AA 3653 · flown by Envoy 7h 40m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:43 → DFW 14:28AA 2797 3h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:27 → MAF 19:50AA 4279 · flown by Envoy 8h 07m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → LAS 10:25 → IAH 15:40UA 1711 55m Houston IAH 16:35 → MAF 18:15UA 6233 · flown by Mesa 5h 50m 83% 71%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:33 → DFW 17:30AA 1482 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:35 → MAF 21:53AA 3541 · flown by Envoy 7h 20m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → LAS 11:41 → DFW 16:38AA 1494 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:08 → MAF 21:30AA 4172 · flown by Envoy 7h 49m 90% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:08 → MAF 21:30AA 4172 · flown by Envoy 5h 28m 57% 41%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:33 → DFW 17:30AA 1482 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:27 → MAF 19:50AA 4279 · flown by Envoy 5h 17m 55% 40%
AmericanDetails → LAS 16:42 → PHX 18:02AA 1541 58m Phoenix PHX 19:00 → MAF 22:48AA 4892 · flown by SkyWest 4h 06m 51% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON