Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 168 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 168 LAS 06:12 → MCI 11:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4506 LAS 16:54 → MCI 21:50 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 168 Southwest	LAS 06:12	MCI 11:09	5%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 2323 Southwest	LAS 09:36	MCI 14:27	15%	3%	1.8%	no record
WN 2519 Southwest	LAS 21:15	MCI 02:05	33%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 873 Southwest	LAS 19:40	MCI 00:32	35%	12%	0.7%	no record
UA 3814 United	LAS 18:05	MCI 22:50	37%	16%	1.6%	no record
WN 2329 Southwest	LAS 16:23	MCI 21:15	41%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 2328 Southwest	LAS 14:23	MCI 19:14	41%	13%	1.0%	no record
F9 4506 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 16:54	MCI 21:50	43%	20%	1.4%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON