Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2387 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 2387 LAS 08:30 → MCO 16:02 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2832 LAS 14:55 → MCO 22:36 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2387 Southwest	LAS 08:30	MCO 16:02	23%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 1004 Southwest	LAS 11:45	MCO 19:18	32%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 3508 Southwest	LAS 22:50	MCO 06:19	32%	9%	0.7%	no record
F9 1876 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 21:42	MCO 05:30	34%	18%	1.4%	71%
WN 2774 Southwest	LAS 16:25	MCO 23:55	38%	14%	0.7%	no record
B6 2832 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 14:55	MCO 22:36	44%	11%	0.8%	86%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677	55m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150	6h 35m	81%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON