Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1405 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 1405 LAS 05:05 → MDW 10:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3992 LAS 16:15 → MDW 21:47 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1405 Southwest	LAS 05:05	MDW 10:39	5%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 259 Southwest	LAS 06:50	MDW 12:22	7%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 2338 Southwest	LAS 00:11	MDW 05:45	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3338 Southwest	LAS 19:45	MDW 01:16	39%	14%	1.6%	no record
WN 2179 Southwest	LAS 18:14	MDW 23:45	41%	15%	1.6%	no record
WN 1229 Southwest	LAS 13:50	MDW 19:22	42%	12%	2.7%	no record
WN 3992 Southwest	LAS 16:15	MDW 21:47	44%	18%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON