tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2339 at 12:45, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2339 Southwest LAS 12:45 MEM 18:08 33% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:45 → MSP 05:51DL 2834 3h 19m Minneapolis MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 8h 43m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:29 → MSP 14:35DL 2261 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest 6h 23m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:04 → ORD 05:46UA 2102 3h 14m Chicago ORD 09:00 → MEM 11:05UA 5593 · flown by SkyWest 9h 01m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 28m Denver DEN 11:00 → MEM 14:29UA 2789 6h 59m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:01 → ORD 05:39AA 3077 2h 29m Chicago ORD 08:08 → MEM 09:57AA 3959 · flown by Envoy 7h 56m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:57 → MSP 17:04DL 2262 3h 01m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 8h 18m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → LAS 05:57 → DFW 10:44AA 2932 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:35 → MEM 14:16AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 6h 19m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698 1h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 13:40 → MEM 17:40DL 2515 5h 40m 94% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 50m Denver DEN 17:30 → MEM 20:56UA 2130 5h 20m 44% 25%
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:30 → CLT 22:04AA 2470 49m Charlotte CLT 22:53 → MEM 23:45AA 1372 7h 15m 33% 20%
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 57m Chicago ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317 6h 56m 33% 18%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON