Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3318 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–55%.

Safest bet that day AA 3318 LAS 06:06 → MIA 14:10 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1173 LAS 13:06 → MIA 20:55 · 55% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3318 American Flight history →	LAS 06:06	MIA 14:10	24%	5%	6.1%	81%
AA 1539 American	LAS 22:25	MIA 06:18	35%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 803 American	LAS 11:49	MIA 19:52	46%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 1173 American	LAS 13:06	MIA 20:55	55%	12%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	57m Denver	DEN 09:29 → MIA 15:24UA 1418	6h 54m	94%	61%
American Details →	LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808	1h 16m Phoenix	PHX 09:16 → MIA 16:49AA 1968	7h 04m	91%	56%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → IAH 11:11UA 2608	49m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	6h 47m	84%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON