Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1770 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 1770 LAS 07:46 → MSY 13:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 377 LAS 19:20 → MSY 00:48 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1770 Southwest	LAS 07:46	MSY 13:15	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 4564 Southwest	LAS 12:55	MSY 18:38	37%	9%	1.1%	no record
WN 4396 Southwest	LAS 15:55	MSY 21:38	40%	17%	1.1%	no record
F9 1708 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:37	MSY 20:34	41%	19%	1.4%	71%worse than usual
WN 377 Southwest	LAS 19:20	MSY 00:48	43%	13%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON