Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2346 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 2346 LAS 05:20 → OAK 06:59 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3837 LAS 16:15 → OAK 18:01 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2346 Southwest	LAS 05:20	OAK 06:59	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1997 Southwest	LAS 07:15	OAK 08:54	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2972 Southwest	LAS 09:55	OAK 11:35	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3717 Southwest	LAS 10:55	OAK 12:35	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 2045 Frontier	LAS 07:44	OAK 09:30	19%	8%	1.9%	no record
WN 2430 Southwest	LAS 13:56	OAK 15:35	36%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 2260 Southwest	LAS 15:14	OAK 16:52	37%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 2524 Southwest	LAS 21:36	OAK 23:14	39%	16%	0.6%	no record
WN 2138 Southwest	LAS 22:46	OAK 00:25	41%	14%	0.6%	no record
WN 2351 Southwest	LAS 18:37	OAK 20:16	42%	16%	0.6%	no record
WN 4008 Southwest	LAS 18:36	OAK 20:14	43%	16%	0.6%	no record
F9 3837 Frontier	LAS 16:15	OAK 18:01	43%	20%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON