tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 01:55, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2271 Southwest LAS 09:20 OGG 12:31 20% 4% 0.5% no record
AS 931 Alaska Flight history → LAS 07:05 OGG 10:12 20% 5% 0.7% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:55 → HNL 05:16AS 817 2h 46m Honolulu HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046 9h 48m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:08 → LAX 07:24UA 2039 1h 36m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → OGG 11:46UA 417 8h 38m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573 9h 34m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 28m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 12h 35m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 10h 47m 98% 77%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 10:05 → HNL 13:29AS 807 3h 14m Honolulu HNL 16:43 → OGG 17:24AS 1156 10h 19m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808 3h 03m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 10h 47m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:18 → LAX 07:31DL 553 59m Los Angeles LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425 7h 49m 88% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:34 → SFO 15:16UA 1799 1h 24m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 8h 43m 73% 57%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574 53m San Francisco SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623 8h 06m 55% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON