Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2418 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 2418 LAS 09:10 → OKC 13:43 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1743 LAS 13:25 → OKC 17:57 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2418 Southwest	LAS 09:10	OKC 13:43	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1992 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 08:54	OKC 13:38	21%	6%	1.2%	84%
WN 4263 Southwest	LAS 21:10	OKC 01:43	35%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 1743 Southwest	LAS 13:25	OKC 17:57	41%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON