Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2361 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36%.

Safest bet that day WN 2361 LAS 08:00 → ONT 09:12 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1923 LAS 15:32 → ONT 16:43 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2361 Southwest	LAS 08:00	ONT 09:12	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 1357 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 05:54	ONT 07:16	10%	5%	0.9%	82%
F9 1283 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 09:56	ONT 11:16	19%	9%	0.9%	86%
WN 3263 Southwest	LAS 11:05	ONT 12:17	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 669 Southwest	LAS 20:30	ONT 21:43	36%	15%	0.6%	no record
WN 1967 Southwest	LAS 22:40	ONT 23:52	36%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 2616 Southwest	LAS 15:55	ONT 17:07	39%	12%	0.6%	no record
F9 1923 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:32	ONT 16:43	40%	17%	1.0%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON