Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1057 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 52–57%.

Safest bet that day UA 1057 LAS 06:08 → ORD 11:52 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 706 LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23 · 59% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1057 United	LAS 06:08	ORD 11:52	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 664 United Flight history →	LAS 07:00	ORD 12:48	16%	6%	0.7%	89%
UA 2102 United Flight history →	LAS 00:04	ORD 05:33	19%	4%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
AA 3077 American Flight history →	LAS 00:01	ORD 05:39	22%	5%	1.2%	85%
AA 2258 American Flight history →	LAS 07:20	ORD 13:16	26%	7%	1.5%	89%worse than usual
UA 1672 United Flight history →	LAS 08:58	ORD 14:32	30%	13%	0.9%	80%worse than usual
F9 2146 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 00:13	ORD 05:44	32%	10%	2.1%	70%
UA 1583 United Flight history →	LAS 10:25	ORD 16:21	37%	14%	1.0%	83%worse than usual
AA 3080 American	LAS 09:42	ORD 15:32	38%	14%	2.4%	no record
UA 314 United Flight history →	LAS 12:46	ORD 18:29	50%	22%	1.0%	69%worse than usual
UA 2320 United Flight history →	LAS 16:15	ORD 22:13	52%	26%	0.9%	78%worse than usual
AA 1497 American	LAS 13:07	ORD 19:20	57%	25%	2.3%	no record
AA 2366 American	LAS 16:01	ORD 21:47	57%	28%	2.0%	no record
UA 706 United Flight history →	LAS 14:25	ORD 20:23	59%	28%	1.0%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON